>[!quote] > This happens not just in politics and in the media, but in, in all kinds of spheres of life. I'm thinking about a, a Paul Nutt study looking at hundreds of organizational decisions and trying to compare the ones that went well versus the ones that went poorly and looking for what are the leading indicators of a bad decision. > > And it turns out that **==the single best predictor he can find of many factors is, did you only consider two options? Just considering a third was enough to predict having at least better odds of making a good choice.==** Now, I don't know whether just getting people to consider a third possibility unlocks a better choice, or whether the kinds of people who are already more sophisticated thinkers are more likely to look behind door number three. > > <small> - [[Adam Grant]] paraphrasing [[Paul Nutt]] whilst speaking to [[Trevor Noah]]